Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,国内,MPV,市场分析,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,1,2021年国产MPV市场分析,及2021年展望,2,Content,2021年MPV市场分析,2021年市场展望,BuickGL8,Canival,嘉华,Grand-Voyager,Caravan,凯领,Caddy(,停产,),*,Previa,大霸王,*Grandis,格兰迪斯,3,合资商务,2021年国内MPV分类,合资兼用,自主商务,自主兼用,Refine,瑞风,Future,风行,Grace,阁瑞斯,Freewind,自由风,MP-X,蒙派克,Yunsun,御轩,OrientalSonCross,Karry,开瑞,优翼,Shuaike,帅克,Premacy(Freema)*,Joyear景逸,Kylin骐菱,Cowry嘉誉,Midi迷迪,Fengshang风气,Jiexun杰勋,Riich开瑞优雅,CM8,Odyssey奥德赛,S-max麦柯斯,Touran途安,Geniss骏逸,Soveran停产),*Mazda5,*Carens佳美,4,10,9,27,国产,进口,Xenia,森雅,M80,4,MPV,16,个品牌,国内五大集团,MPV,可供产品汇总,5,BuickGL8,陆尊,Touran,途安,S-max,麦柯斯,Freewind,自由风,Yunsun,御轩,Joyear,景逸,Kylin,骐菱,Odyssey,奥德赛,Fengshang,风气,Jiexun,杰勋,CM8,Xenia,森雅,M80,Shuaike,帅克,Future,风行,Geniss,骏逸,15,个产品,/55%,每年新车榜,6,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2,1,1,2,3,4,8,4,3,3,瑞风,风行,奥德赛,阁瑞斯,菱绅,嘉华,途安,开迪,陆尊,骏逸,V5,自由风,风尚,Smax,御轩,大捷龙,凯领,CM8,蒙派克,森雅,M80,杰勋,景逸,骐菱,迷迪,新奥德赛,帅克,新普力马,阁瑞斯睿翔,M8,M6(BYD),和悦,RS,2004,2003,2002,2001,2001,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2010,2009,？,？,国产,MPV,定位矩阵,7,商务,舒适,生活,实用,GL8,奥德赛,凯领,瑞风,新普力马,嘉华,帅克,风行,阁瑞斯,途安,骏逸,东方之子,Cross,杰勋,迷迪,景逸,森雅,*,红色字体,为该市场中领头羊车型,.,下半年,MPV,销量大为改观,8,2021-2021年MPV月度销量走势,9,2021年月均销量：1.69万辆；2021年月均销量：2.1万辆，增长26.1%,1-1,月,1-2,月,1-3,月,1-4,月,1-5,月,1-6,月,1-7,月,1-8,月,1-9,月,1-10,月,1-11,月,1-12,月,增长率,-26.3%,-13.9%,-11.5%,-8.9%,-6.8%,-5.3%,-3.2%,1.3%,9.0%,14.1%,21.3%,26.1%,MPV,季度销量变化曲线图,10,2007,2021,2021,2009 12,2008 12,MoM,2009 1-12,2008 1-12,YoY,09share,08share,Sedan,823787,452434,82.1%,7473106,5046934,48.1%,89.2%,88.7%,MPV,31292,13930,124.6%,248943,197393,26.1%,3.0%,3.5%,SUV,79374,40599,95.5%,658821,447722,47.1%,7.9%,7.9%,Total,934453,506963,84.3%,8380870,5692049,47.2%,100%,100%,跨界车,2009 1-12,2008 1-12,增长率,骊威劲锐版,45164,16879,167.6%,毕加索,2692,3365,-20.0%,天语,HB,50409,38886,29.6%,CrossPolo,7917,6581,20.3%,酷熊,10038,0,逍客,33877,23772,42.5%,CRV,105233,80607,30.6%,赛马,6216,6812,-8.7%,北斗星,76138,50895,49.6%,合计,337684,227797,48.2%,MPV,2009 1-11,2008 1-11,YoY,2009Share,2008Share,Gap,1.0-1.6L,25287,16699,51.4%,11.6%,9.1%,2.5%,1.6-2.0L,60182,46503,29.4%,27.7%,25.4%,2.3%,2.0-2.5L,102809,93265,10.2%,47.2%,50.8%,-3.6%,2.5-3.0L,29373,26951,9.0%,13.5%,14.7%,-1.2%,合计,217651,183418,18.7%,100.0%,100.0%,0.0%,小排量,MPV,受宠，跨界车分食明显,11,48.2%,自主商务,2009 1-12,2008 1-12,增长率,市占率,瑞风,46033,36304,26.8%,46.6%,风行,16860,14108,19.5%,17.1%,阁瑞斯,14664,12079,21.4%,14.9%,东方之子,Cross,8257,9522,-13.3%,8.4%,蒙派克,6524,2549,156%,6.6%,御轩,2606,1682,55%,2.6%,帅克,1712,0,1.7%,开瑞,1051,1907,-44.9%,1.1%,自由风,978,929,5.3%,1.0%,合计,98685,79080,24.8%,100%,高端车型,2009 1-12,2008 1-12,增长率,市占率,GL8,40103,36286,10.5%,41.6%,奥德赛,28395,28872,-1.7%,29.5%,途安,20087,12028,67.0%,20.9%,S-max,4600,3918,17.4%,4.8%,骏逸,1770,3797,-53.4%,1.8%,嘉华,858,1155,-25.7%,0.9%,大捷龙,290,2187,-86.7%,0.3%,凯领,182,776,-76.5%,0.2%,菱绅,2,1209,-99.8%,0.0%,开迪,0,45,-100%,0.0%,合计,96287,90273,6.7%,100.0%,低端畅销,高端缓销,12,从2021年起，各企业逐渐认识到启动三四线市场的重要性，加上2021年的政策有利于低端车型的销售。
竞争已经由对一二级市场的品牌推广、广告宣传，逐渐转移到对三四级市场消费潜力的深入挖掘，以找到新的市场增长点并扩大市场销售品牌集中度高：前3家达57.5%基于1-11月上牌数,销量在,2.5,万辆以上的有,3,家，占,57.5%,；,1,万辆以上的有,2,家，,Top5,销量约占,3/4,13,Top3,57.5%,Top11,90.5%,Top5,73.5%,区域集中度高：前7省市达60.4%基于1-11月上牌数,北京、上海、广东销量同比下降比较大；,在1万辆以上的有7个省市，销量占60%14,7,省市超万辆,Top7,60.4%,Top12,74.7%,Top20,91%,前6省市前6种车型销量：江浙两省的品牌接受度高基于1-11月上牌数,15,奥德赛,GL8,途安,历年MPV销量排名,16,国产,MPV,质量有明显提高,17,问题下降,79%,2009 1-12,2008 1-12,增长率,09,年占比,08,年占比,Gap,09,年占比,08,年占比,合资商务,41433,40449,2.4%,17%,20%,-3.8%,38.7%,45.7%,合资兼用,54854,49824,10.1%,22%,25%,-3.2%,自主商务,98685,79080,24.8%,40%,40%,-0.4%,61.3%,54.3%,自主兼用,53971,28039,92.5%,22%,14%,7.5%,合计,248943,197392,26.1%,100%,100%,100%,100%,国进洋退,:,自主商务和兼用,MPV,占,60%,以上,18,前4大车型2021年销量走势及用户流向,19,当前,MPV,市场,MSRP,与交易价,20,图中红色和蓝色曲线为,MSRP,和,TP,价格指数走势，柱状图描述,MSRP,和,TP,指数之差,引用资料,21,2021年MPV市场特点,小排量低端车热销,兼用型MPV需求提升(与政策因素相关,与乘用车大势保持一致),新种类(Cross)车型开始分食MPV的份额,集中度“双高：品牌的和区域的,制造水平明显提升JD Power IQS,洋品牌改“姓或停产，如：,大发森雅一汽森雅；菱绅、开迪停产,出现“国进洋退的局面，自主品牌大举反攻60%),MPV新产品在追求泛轿车化，出现进一步向家用型功能需求方向倾斜的定位，如：,新奥德赛“多功能轿车；优翼Karry“城市多功能轿厢车,新普力马“全能家轿；优雅Riich“轿车化微客,景逸“大两厢轿车；帅克CDV基于轿车平台的厢式车/城市多功能商用车“,MPV,细分市场存在的问题,22,关于市场认知：,用户对MPV认知属于慢热型，下半年加速增长,充分宣传MPV多功能兼用性特点,会好卖(集于一身),拥车与用车本钱高：,同平台车型，价格高于轿车；厢体大，油耗大，特别在油价上升期，难以有竞争优势,提高品质，做精工艺，提高发动机科技水平，燃油更经济,需要营销效劳创新：,帅克的“百城万人免费使用大行动,新一代普力马的5年10万公里；新奥德赛的3年10万公里,为解决方案,23,Content,2021年MPV市场分析,2021年市场展望,局部机构近期对中国GDP增长率的预测,24,预测机构,2009,年,2010,年,高盛集团,9.4%,11.9%,野村证券,8.0%,10.0%,花旗集团,-,9.8%,申银万国,8.3%,8.5%,澳大利亚投资银行,-,10.3%,国际货币基金组织,8.5%,9.0%,乘用车发展规律,5,20,100,250,千人保有量在,5,辆以下,千人。