毕业论文（设计）外文译文题 目 财务危机预警分析与应用 院 系 会计学院 专 业 财务管理 年级 2008级 学生姓名 邓黎明 学 号 080446001 指导教师 李玫玫 财务危机预警分析与应用 经济的迅猛发展，使世界各国企业的经济面临更为激烈的竞争，企业稍有不慎，就可能被卷入失败的漩涡而任何企业的财务危机都是逐渐恶化的过程，因此，加强财务危机管理，及时发现企业财务管理中存在的问题，及早察觉财务危机发生前的信号，使经营管理者能够在财务危机出现的萌芽时期采取有效措施，改善经营管理，是非常必要的企业财务危机的产生有着多方面的原因，不仅仅是企业外部条件会造成企业的财务危机，企业内部由于经营管理不善也会促发企业的财务危机，为此就必需选择恰当的财务指标，建立合理的财务危机预警体系，加强企业财务风险的防范，以便在金融危机的大潮下，提前制定出应急方案和适应当下局势的决策，尽量减少或是避免财务危机为企业带来的损失和危害，做到防范于未然。
财务危机预警系统作为一种成本低廉的诊断工具，能实时对公司的生产经营过程和财务状况惊醒跟踪监控，及时的进行财务预警分析，发现财务状况异常，及时采取应变措施，避免或减少损失纵观国内外对财务危机预警的研究，虽然已取得可喜的成果，但随着信息时代的来临，已有的成果已无法适应瞬息万变的网络数字社会因此，本文针对这一时期的空白，对企业财务危机预警的分析与应用做出研究由企业经营者决策失误、管理失控以及外部环境恶化等会导致财务危机企业财务报表虽然具有一定的滞后性，但通过分析，可以系统评价企业过去财务管理整体效果和变动趋势，通过预警可以帮助企业把握财务管理发展方向财务危机预警是以财务会计信息为基础，通过设置并观察一些敏感性指标的变化，对企业可能或将要面临的财务危机做出实时的监控和预测警报包括单变量预警模型，多变量预警模型等方式分析企业的情况提前发现财务恶化的信号，从而采取相应的措施，以减少损失，做到信息时代的未雨绸缪 在市场经济下,生意失败或者企业破产代表了没有使得资源配置一使得不景气发生转变的指标尽管如此重要的经济功能、商业破产证明是痛苦的经历作多人的赎价上述报价显示,一个谨慎的面对问题的方式是识别金融衰退在进步和阻止它的发生。
这个文章的目的是研究香港失败或者破产公司的财务特征和使用一种最受欢迎的财务预警模型制作一个“预警系统”寻找“问题”公司财务预警分析模型已经被广泛地使用在这个世界上 预测始终是一个艺术,破产预测也不例外记者和一些“内部人分析师”特别愿意基于定性解释来评论本研究试图利用现有学术工具来开发一个简单但目标面向投资者、银行、政府官员和学者,以帮助他们评估企业的财务状况二、企业财务预警系统概述定义通过对企业财务报表及相关经营资料的分析，利用及时的财务数据和相应的数据化管理方式，将企业已面临的危险情况预先告知企业经营者和其他利益关系人，并分析企业发生财务危机的原因和企业财务运营体系隐藏的问题，以提早做好防范措施的财务分析系统财务预警系统的功能：监测功能诊断功能治疗功能健身功能企业财务预警组织结构框架 两种设置模式预警组织机构成员兼职，也聘请一定数量的外部专家，独立开展工作，不直接干涉企业的经营预警组织机构的日常工作由某些职能部门分别承担（如财务部、审计部、企管办等），但必须安排一个具体部门集中处理和安排有关事宜财务预警系统相关机制财务预警的信息收集、传递机制财务风险分析机制：通过分析迅速排除对财务影响小的风险，从而将主要精力放在可能造成重大影响的风险上。
预警分析系统一般有两个要素先行指标：早期评测不佳运营状况扳机点：预先准备的应急计划必须开始启动的临界点财务风险处理机制财务风险责任机制财务预警分析的技术方法与模式按分析时利用指标或因素的多少分类单变量预警风险和多变量预警风险按分析判断时采取的主要依据分类指标判断因素判断：以风险因素是否出现或出现的概率作为报警准则按分析所采用的分析方法分类定性分析和定量分析（一）定性预警分析1、标准化调查法 通过专业人士、公司、协会等，就企业可能碰到的问题进行详细调查与分析，形成报告文件供企业经营者使用的方法所提出的问题具有共性，具有普适性，但无法提供企业的特定问题2、“（三个月）资金周转表”分析法未制定三个月资金周转表，本身是个问题倘已制好了表，要查明转入下一个月的结转额是否占总收入的20%以上，付款票据的支付额是否在销售额的60%以下（批发商）或40%以下（制造业）3、流程图分析法根据企业的实际情况构建流程图，以展示企业的全部经营活动；对流程图的每一阶段、每一环节、每种资产和每一具体经营活动逐项进行调查分析，并对照风险清单，确定企业可能面临的风险；在分析过程中， 除了分析某一阶段由于资金运动不畅导致的风险，还应把整个资金运动的过程结合起来考察，从整体上识别企业面临的各种风险。
4、管理评分法对企业的管理特性及可能导致企业破产的缺陷、错误和征兆进行对比打分，并根据这些项目对破产过程产生影响的程度对它们进行了加权处理总分是100 分，企业所得分数越高，处境越差每一项得分要么是零分要么是满分，不能给中间分所给的分数表明企业管理不善的程度如果评分总计超过25 分，表明企业正面临失败的危险；如果评分总计超过35 分，表明企业正处于严重的危机中；企业的安全得分一般小于18 分如评分总计小于25 分，但“错误”栏中的分数超过15分，该企业仍面临某种危机，但这种危机可通过加强或改善管理来解决管理评分法认为企业失败源于高管层的经营不善， 这种方法简单易懂，行之有效，但其效果取决于是否对被评分企业及其管理者有直接、深入的了解1、单变量模式 运用单一变量，用个别财务比率来预测财务危机的模型（1）财务比率法主要比率债务保障率=现金流量/债务总额资产收益率=净利润/资产总额资产负债率=负债总额/资产总额（2）“利息及票据贴现费用”判别分析法以利息及票据贴现费用占销售额的比例判断（3）企业股市跟踪法简单认为企业股票价格的持续下降是企业经营失败的前兆缺陷：选择指标有争议不能够预测可能及何时破产；会受到通货膨胀的影响；易受到“创造性会计方法”影响。
2、多变量模式 运用多个财务指标来综合反映企业的财务状况，并在此基础上建立预警模型进行预测1）企业安全率安全边际率（经营安全角度）安全边际率=安全边际额/现有（预计）销售额 =[现有（预计）销售额-保本销售额] /现有（预计）销售额资金安全率（资金安全角度）资金安全率=（资产变现金额－负债额）/资产账面金额 =资产变现率－资产负债率两个指标结合起来进行企业安全率判断处于第Ⅰ象限，状况良好，应采取有计划经营扩张策略；处于第Ⅱ象限，状况尚好，但市场销售能力明显不足处于第Ⅲ象限，经营不善，随时有倒闭的可能处于第Ⅳ象限，财务状况已露出险兆Comprises from all over the world are facing the drastic competition. The economic crisis in every companies is a process of gradual deterioration, so it is necessary to detect the faults in the management of financial crisis and the signals before the financial crisis to make the managers to take action before the crisis and develop the operating management. The production of the financial crisis has many reasons. They are not only the external condition but also the internal condition of unavailable management. So to make the emergency response and decision before the financial crisis, devaluate or hedge against lose brought by the crisis, the company must choose the appropriate target, establish available systems of early warning and enforce the precautionary measures.Financial crisis warning system as a low cost diagnostic tool, can real-time of production management process and financial status wake up with a start tracking monitoring, timely financial warning analysis, found that financial status is unusual, to take emergency measures to avoid or reduce the loss. Throughout the early warning of the financial crisis at home and abroad research, although already made gratifying achievements, but the information age, of the existing achievement has been unable to adapt to the changing network digital society. Therefore, this paper makes a period of blank, to the enterprise financial crisis warning analysis and the application of a study. Enterprise financial statement although has the certain hysteresis, but through the analysis, evaluation system enterprise in the past financial management integral effect and trend of change, through the early warning can help enterprise financial management grasp the direction of development. Financial crisis warning financial accounting information is for the foundation, through setting and observe some sensitive index and changes of the enterprise may be or will be faced with financial crisis in a real-time monitoring and predicting the alarm. Including single variable early warning model, multivariate early warning model and analysis the situation of the way the enterprise. To find out the financial deterioration of the signal, so as to take corresponding measures to reduce the loss, do the information age for a rainy day. In a market econonmy,business failures or company bankruptcies represent the indicator to prevent allocation of resources from future channelling into failing business.Despite this important economic function,business bankruptcies prove to be painful experience for many.As shown by the above quotation,one prudent way to face the problem of financial distress is to identify it in advance and prevent it from taking place. The purpose of this project is to study the financial characteristics of “failing” or bankrupt firms in HK and use one of the most popular financial-distress prediction model(financial ratio-discriminant analysis) to work out an”early-warning system” for identifying “problem”firms. The financial ratio-discriminant analysis model has been widely used in the world.Prediction is always an art and bankruptcy prediction is no exception.journalists and some “insider analysts” are particularly keen in contributing their comments which are normaly based on qualitative interpretations. This study is an attempt to utilize the available statistical tool to develop a simple but objective function for investors,bankers,government officials or academics ,so as to help them in assessing the financial health of firms.The financial affairs warning system overview definition Through to the financial statements of the enterprise and related management data analysis, using the timely financial data and the corresponding data management methods, the enterprise has faced dangerous conditions in advance to business operators and other stakeholders, and analyzes the cause of the financial crisis enterprise happening and enterprise financial operation system hidden problems, in order to make the financial measures to prevent early analysis system. The function of the financial affairs warning system Monitoring function Diagnosis function Treatment function Fitness function The financial affairs warning organization structure framework Two kinds of setting mode *Warning organization members part-time, also employ a certain number of external experts, working independently, not to intervene directly in the management of the enterprise *Early warning of the routine work of the organization by some functional departments separate undertaking (such as finance, auditing, corporate governance office, etc), but must arrange a specific departments focusing on the relevant matters and arrangements Financial warning system related mechanism Financial warning information collection, transmission mechanism Financial risk analysis mechanism: through the analysis of financial effect is small quickly ruled out the risk, and will be the main energy may have great effect on the risk. Warning analysis system is usually two elements Leading indicators: early evaluation not beautiful operation condition The trigger point: prepared emergency plans must start of critical point Financial risk management mechanism Financial risk responsibility mechanism Financial warning analysis technology method and mode According to the analysis of the use of indicators or how many factors of classification Univariate and multivariate early warning and risk early warning and risk According to the analysis of the main according to classification Index judgment Factors judgment: whether to risk factors appear or appears as alarm probability rule According to analysis the analytic method classification Qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis (a) qualitative pre-warning analysis 1, standardization surveys Through the professional people, company, society, etc, the enterprise may be run into problems of detailed survey and analysis, the report form file for enterprise operator methods. The proposed problems with common, generality, but could not provide enterprise specific problem2, "(three months) fund turnover table" analysis method Not yet determined three months the capital turnover table, itself is a problem If the system has good table, to find out into the next months of carry forward the forehead is accounted for more than 20% of the payment of the bill payment is in 60% of sales amount the following (wholesalers) or below 40% (manufacturing). 3、flow chart analysis method According to the actual situation of the flow chart of construction enterprise, to display the enterprise of all business activities; The flow charts of each stage, each link, each assets and each specific business activities, item by item, investigation and analysis, and control risk list, determine the risk of the enterprise may be faced with; In the analytical process, in addition to a certain stage analysis because of the money to the poor movement risk, still should put the whole capital movement process of the combined investigation, overall identification enterprise to face a variety of risk. 4, management evaluation method The characteristics of the enterprise management and can lead to the bankruptcy of the enterprise, error and signs defects compared scoring, and according to the project of the bankruptcy process the extent of the impact they were weighted processing. Total score is 100 minutes, enterprise income with higher scores the worse situation. Each and every one of the score is either zero or is full marks, can't give middle points. The fraction indicates that the extent of the bad management enterprise. If the score total more than 25 points, it shows that the enterprise is facing the risk of failure; If the score total more than 35 points, it shows that the enterprise is in serious crisis; Enterprise security score less than 18 points. If less than 25 points total score, but "mistakes" column scores more than 15 points, this enterprise still faces a crisis, but this crisis can be improved by strengthening or management to solve. Management evaluation method think the enterprise executives from the failure of bad management, this method is simple to understand, the effective, but its effect depends on whether to be graded enterprise and its managers have direct, the thorough understanding.(b) quantitative pre-warning analysis 1, single variable mode Using a single variable, with individual financial ratios of the model to predict the financial crisis (1) financial ratio method The main rate Debt university = cash flow/total liabilities The return on assets = net profit/total assets The asset-liability ratio = total debt/total assets (2) "interest and bills discounting expenses" discriminant analysis method To interest and bill discount charge is about the proportion of sales judgment (3) enterprise tracking method of the stock market Simple think the enterprise stock prices continue to fall is the enterprise manages the precursor of failure Limitations: Select indicators are controversial Not to be able to predict may and when to bankruptcy, Will be affected by the effect of inflation; Susceptible to "creative accounting method" influence. 2, the multivariate mode Use multiple financial indicators to comprehensive reflection of enterprise's financial condition, and based on this, the establishment of early warning model forecast. (1) xiaolongtan buzhaoba enterprise Safety marginal rate (business security Angle) Safety marginal rate = safety marginal forehead/existing (estimated) sales = [existing (expected) sales-break-even sales] / existing (estimated) sales Xiaolongtan buzhaoba funds (funds security Angle) Capital xiaolongtan buzhaoba = (asset recovery amount-FuZhaiE) / assets carrying amount = liquidity-the asset-liability ratio 9。